Author Profile
Warnock, Frank
The Fed in 2025: Well Positioned for Upcoming Shocks?
GEM-0239 | Published March 11, 2025 | 29 pages. Case
Collection: Darden School of Business
After the first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of 2025, Jay Powell paused to consider the past and prospective paths for the US Federal Reserve (the Fed). Early in 2025, Powell was pleas... Read More
Social Security and the Threat to US Safety Nets
GEM-0234 | Published December 18, 2024 | 11 pages. Case
Collection: Darden School of Business
During a discussion in October 2024, Javin Dana and Elias Patrick began contemplating the potential collapse of the US social safety net. They knew that the projections for Social Security, Medicare, ... Read More
The World’s Next Reserve Currency
Chandler, Marc; Warnock, Frank
GEM-0211 | Published November 11, 2024 | 28 pages. Case
Collection: Darden School of Business
In February 2025, Rashonda Williams, responsible for global asset allocation at a large pension fund, was pondering the US dollar's long-term prospects. Since at least 1956, the dollar had been the ki... Read More
From Draghi’s "Whatever It Takes" to Managing Fragmentation Risk
GEM-0212 | Published March 05, 2024 | 28 pages. Case
Collection: Darden School of Business
Updated in February 2025, this case examines the eurozone from the perspective of core and periphery long-term rates. By 2010, the "Great Convergence" in eurozone long-term rates during the late 1990s... Read More
The 3P Model
GEM-0209 | Published February 29, 2024 | 12 pages. Technical Note
Collection: Darden School of Business
This note presents an open-economy macroeconomic model with three panes: IS/LM, international capital flows, and the exchange rate and net exports. It also includes extensions: full employment and the... Read More
Identifying Fragilities in the Global Economy
Walsh, Kieran J.; Warnock, Frank
GEM-0208 | Published February 28, 2024 | 13 pages. Technical Note
Collection: Darden School of Business
This note presents frameworks and indicators for identifying fragile economies. It includes an assessment of Morgan Stanley's Fragile Five call in 2012 as well as current fragilities data for a range ... Read More
Swatch Group and Francogeddon (Abridged)
GEM-0206 | Published February 27, 2024 | 8 pages. Case
Collection: Darden School of Business
This case illustrates how exchange rate shocks affect international businesses. The focus is on one recent stark example: the effect on Swatch Group of the Swiss National Bank's January 2015 decision ... Read More
Predicting the Next High-Growth Economies
Walsh, Kieran J.; Warnock, Frank
GEM-0207 | Published January 30, 2024 | 14 pages. Technical Note
Collection: Darden School of Business
In 2001, the economies of Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRICs) were predicted to grow faster than many others; this prediction turned out to be true. In this technical note, the challenge is to id... Read More
An Abridged User’s Guide to BPM6-Based BOP and IIP Accounts
GEM-0213 | Published January 18, 2024 | 6 pages. Technical Note
Collection: Darden School of Business
This note presents an abridged description of balance of payments (BOP) and international investment position (IIP) data. It refers to data for Mexico, but given that there are worldwide standards for... Read More
Global Asset Allocation: Investing in a Time of Debt and Uncertainty
GEM-0215 | Published March 23, 2023 | 22 pages. Case
Collection: Darden School of Business
In early 2025, pension fund manager Lynda Chen was troubled. She knew how important portfolio returns were for the pension’s finances. The fund’s assets ensure the pension’s health, as portfolio retur... Read More
Fed Listens Meets an Inflation Surge
GEM-0210 | Published March 01, 2023 | 29 pages. Case
Collection: Darden School of Business
After the final Federal Open Market Committee meeting of 2022, Jay Powell paused to consider the past and prospective paths for the US Federal Reserve (the Fed). Entering 2023, Powell had three not-un... Read More
Yield Curve Basics (SPANISH)
BP-0567 | Published December 15, 2021 | 7 pages. Technical Note
Collection: Darden School of Business
This is a Spanish translation of the March 15, 2006 version of UVA-BP-0491. This technical note discusses risk and term premiums, prominent theories of the yield curve, and how to construct a yield cu... Read More
The Yield Curve and Growth Forecasts (SPANISH)
GEM-0229 | Published December 15, 2021 | 9 pages. Case
Collection: Darden School of Business
This is a Spanish translation of the August 23, 2018 version of UVA-GEM-0106. In this case the protagonist was sifting through the evidence on the predictive content of the yield curve. Did the curren... Read More
Doing Business: A Managerial Perspective
Warnock, Frank; Begley, J. Asher
GEM-0176 | Published February 12, 2021 | 14 pages. Technical Note
Collection: Darden School of Business
A government’s impact on the economy is not limited to taxes, spending, and monetary policy. As any manager can attest, regulations dramatically impact the way managers think about production. An effe... Read More
Exchange Rate Shocks in the United Kingdom and Switzerland
Walsh, Kieran J.; Warnock, Frank
GEM-0172 | Published January 06, 2021 | 15 pages. Case
Collection: Darden School of Business
This case follows as the protagonist sets out to refresh his knowledge of large changes in exchange rates by analyzing two specific episodes: George Soros against the Bank of England (BOE) in 1992 and... Read More
The Yield Curve and Growth Forecasts
GEM-0106 | Published March 07, 2011 | 8 pages. Case
Collection: Darden School of Business
Fully updated through February 2025, in this case, the protagonist was sifting through the evidence on the predictive content of the yield curve. Did the current steepness of the yield curve mean that... Read More